Fear of Forking
The fear of forking remains rampant in spite of the rise of Git, Mercurial and the other decentralized standard bearers. Perhaps because instantiations of Git and its decentralized brothers, for all of their popularity amongst the developer elite, remain heavily outnumbered by the legacy version control alternatives. Looking at Ohloh, for example, which indexed better than 238 thousand projects, we see the following traction for individual DVCS systems (note that I’ve conflated the Svn and Svnsync numbers in the original graph).
This is more clear: centralized repositories still dominate the market. Provided that we assume that this dataset is representative of the wider version control landscape. And while the sample size is more than adequate, there are actually caveats to this data: Github, for example, is not indexed by Ohloh to the best of my knowledge. Of course, neither are the countless inside-the-firewall CVS deployments at enterprises all over the world. In short, while the data is by necessity imperfect, it can be used for making educated guesses at adoption. That centralized tooling significantly outnumbers decentralized alternatives seems to be a safe conclusion; the uncertainty lies rather in how big the lead is.
Also, how long that lead will last.
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