What will 2006 hold for open source?
As December draws to a close, it's customary for all of us columnists to regale our readers with our predictions for the New Year. And who am I to break with tradition? I could take the easy route and tell you that open source and standards-based technologies are here to stay. But if you're reading this I reckon you already know that. Continued commingling of free software and commercial enterprise throughout 2006 is pretty much a given.
Unfortunately, that means open source as marketing will be on the rise as well. As more commercial software vendors open their code in a bid to gain attention, it's going to get harder and harder to spot a true open source project among the pretenders.
Those who want open source to remain foremost a social movement, rather than a business strategy, will rally Version 3.0 of the GNU GPL (General Public License), development of which will continue throughout 2006. Overall, however, I predict that GPL 3.0, with its emphasis on patent issues and international licensing, will have less dire an impact on the enterprise than some pundits have suggested. Debate over some of the more contentious clauses in the new license could lead to schisms between certain factions of the open source community; but then, that's nothing new.
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