Stage Two of Open Source Evolution
We have always said that Open Source could likely follow the evolution pattern of the PC's introduction during the mainframe era. PC's slowly "oozed" into the workplace. Lots of mistakes were made in the early stages of PC evolution, mostly by firms who tried to do it on their own and were being too careless or too creative. The landscape was littered with bad implementations, dangerous security, and more bad practices than good. Plenty of vendors were born out of necessity - making their living bouncing from client to client like ancient story-tellers moving village-to-village sharing the sacred secrets.
For those of us who believed in Open Source in the "birth" stage, we knew the day would come where nearly every firm would be using Open Source in some way. This would accomplish market "breadth", but not equate to "depth" of use. It would be the sign that we had achieved the magical second stage - The Toe Hold. This would be the segue into the third stage where Open Source will transition from an experiment to a market player. If the entire Open Source techno-sphere evolves in a cohesive way, we'll see Open Source move from just a tiny portion of the market to a significant player. What is the measure of significant player? What percentage of the market share is held by Mac or Firefox? I would consider those numbers to be the floor rather than the ceiling of success for Open Source.
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