Why (most) medium sized free software projects are doomed (or, IBM said “no”)
It’s no secret that I love free software; you don’t decide to start a magazine about it and stick with it for years unpaid if you don’t. While making Free Software Magazine, I learned a lot about free software and its ecology. What I discovered was sometimes exciting, sometimes disheartening.
The world is blessed with hundreds of free software projects: from small (and priceless) utilities (like “ls”!), to complex, graphical programs (like Firefox, OOo and the GIMP). It’s like a huge ecosystem, where each piece of software has its place and meaning—and where Darwinian survival rules are applied mercilessly, especially towards the weaker species.
I’ve been in this industry for more than 10 years now, and learned how to identify free software projects.
There are projects that are new (less than 2 years); they are fresh, and exciting. They often try to do something innovative, or take an old idea and do it better.
There are also projects that “make it”. There aren’t many percentage-wise, but they are there.
There is a third class of unfortunate projects: the mid-sized ones. Those projects which are not “small” anymore—their user base is usually very big, the users’ demands grow exponentially, and they are undeniably successful. However, while these projects are big enough to require a lot of care (and time), they have not reached that critical size they need to reach in order to get massive exposure and, therefore, funding.
Who is to blame?
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