Can GNOME Regain the Evolutionary Advantage over KDE?
The Internet has a habit of making anything you say obsolete as soon as you say it. No sooner had I compared the future of the GNOME and KDE desktops than GNOME announced that a version 3.0 would be released after all.
Because of the announcement and the subsequent discussion, I immediately had to reconsider my original conclusion: Does KDE have the evolutionary advantage after all? Or could GNOME regain it and continue to surpass KDE?
At this stage, definitive answers are impossible. While GNOME's plans have received widespread publicity, they are still in the earliest stages. Few milestones have been set, apart from having GNOME 3 released a year from now, and the plans are essentially wish lists that have not been officially approved.
However, assuming that the plans go ahead in something like their present form, one thing seems clear: Whether GNOME competes successfully in the long term depends on usability issues.
Specifically, GNOME's success depends mainly on whether users will accept the vision of usability contained in GNOME 3.0. This vision depends partly on GNOME's final road map, and partly on the influence of Ubuntu's Mark Shuttleworth's campaign to make the desktop the rival of Apple, which should be in place about the same time that GNOME 3 appears.
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