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The Open Source Crystal Ball

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OSS

The end of the year is a self-indulgent time, when those who write about technology stop making lists of the best, worst, and most mind-numbingly mediocre applications they find and pause to make lists about tech trends in the upcoming year.

Assessing the past is easy: it has been an interesting year for open source software. Predictions that come to pass, unless suitably vague, just fall into the "lucky guess" category. The one prediction I am sure of for 2009: Open source software will hold its own when it comes to growth and adoption.

My other predictions? What do you think?

Everywhere we look, there's a penguin

Yes, it will be the "Year of the Linux Desktop," and everyone's mom, grandma, girlfriend, and Amish neighbor will use Linux. All right, even without consulting the Magic 8-ball I know that's not the case. Without a doubt, Linux will be on the periphery of more and more "casual" (and even totally disinterested) computer users. The increase in Linux-based "instant on" technology, the economic crunch, and the advent of Linux/open source appliances that aren't just "computers" will capture the attention of many who've never given open source software much thought.

rest here




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